Horse race journalism! Not even non-journalist bloggers without advertisers can resist it!
Issue 2 seeks to repeal Governor Kasich’s Senate Bill 5, which restricts the collective bargaining rights of public sector workers.
I am going to go out on a limb here but I would bet my Netflix subscription that this one is going down in flames. Governor Kasich and his henchmen in Columbus could write a law requiring that fetuses wear tiaras and get away with it. But try to horn in on teachers and policemen’s salary and pensions? Forgetaboutit. The Ohio Federation of Teachers has been calling the shots in Ohio since long before Kasich came on the scene. These people are going to get out and vote. (They’ve already visited my house twice.)
Anyway, when this inevitably fails, it is going to be a major setback for Kasich’s whole agenda and could bode poorly for him in 2014 (we can hope).
Meanwhile, I’m actually more interested to see the results of Issue 3, which would repeal “Obamacare” in Ohio. How grumpy and old (and hence covered by Medicare) are Ohio’s voters? How receptive are they to reforms put forward by the Obama administration?
This one worries me because Ohio voters are most certainly grumpy and old. On the other hand, the employment situation in this state is so bleak, there has to be a certain percentage of the population that is willing to gamble their medical-bill bankrupted futures on another course of action.
My point is, if Ohio votes down Senate Bill 5 and upholds Obama’s healthcare reform measures, that would bode well for Obama in 2012. If both issues are successful, that’s bad news for Kasich and bad news for Obama.